The Pecking Order...

     With the NFL Combine over, teams are now coordinating their scouts to attend college pro days, getting to work on their draft boards, and setting up their offseason strategies. The braintrust of the Chicago Bears have some hard truths to face if their going to compete for a Super Bowl next year...Here's the pecking order:

• Salary Cap
• Free Agency
• Draft Strategy

Salary Cap

     As it stands, the Bears have 12.9 million in cap space. Using the franchise tag on Melton will eat up 8.3 million of it. Without cap relief, Melton's tag would severely limit the Bears ability to look at free agents. If CHI cannot agree on a long term contract with Melton, they should look into some kind of compensation with the Nonexclusive Tag. But with Paea's ability to play the 3-Technique, letting Melton walk would not bother me one bit. Looking at Charles Tillman, he's in the final year of his deal and due $8 million. Extending Peanut 2 or 3 years, converting his base salary into a bonus, and spreading out that number over the life of the contract could increase CHI's cap to16 or 17 million.

Free Agency

     After solving cap space issues, Bears GM Phil Emery can begin to address team needs. With the amount of quality OTs available via free agency, he has to strike fast to obtain the player he likes the most. NYG has set the market for LTs with Will Beatty's 5 year $38.5 million deal. He was Pro Football Focus' 4th rated OT last year and the 3rd best OT entering free agency. Andre Smith, Sebastian Vollmer, Branden Albert, Jake Long, etc...The Bears cannot hesitate, not for a second. CHI has already tendered a deal to DT/Nate Collins and Pro Football Talk reported they are also in talks with extending LB/Nick Roach. DE/Corey Wootton also played well enough for an extension. No news on DE/Israel Idonije yet, but with all the youth on the D-Line, my guess is he's gone. What gets a lot of play in Chicago Sports Media but is actually a minimal issue is Brian Urlacher. In terms of importance, Urlacher barely rings more then a mention in this post. He'll either sign a minimal deal or he's gone.

Draft Strategy

     The Bears have picks in the 1st Round (20th pick) 2nd Round (50th pick) 4th (TBA), 5th (TBA), and 6th (TBA). As it stands, CHI has a chance to draft two starters and s/t players. Reaching for the 6th best offensive lineman in the 1st Round doesn't sound appeasing. WR, TE, DE will be the best players available at 20; the smart move may be to move out of the first round for extra picks in 2nd and/or 3rd. Coaxing MIA to swap their two 2nd round picks will set the Bears up with the 42nd, 50th, and 54th overall picks. Players that should be available to the Bears: TE's: Zack Ertz, Travis Kleece, and Gavin Escobar. OT's: Kyle Long, Terron Armstead, WR's: Markus Wheaton, Justin Hunter, Terrance Williams, LB's: Alec Ogletree, Kevin Minter, DL's Jesse Williams, John Jenkins, and Margus Hunt. SF now has two picks in the 2nd Round, JAX has high picks in 2nd and 3rd round; The 2013 draft could be a banner year for Emery, if he has the nerve and is a little creative.



Bears 1st Round targets: OL, TE, & LB

          NFL Combine on tap this weekend; that means lock down time, with a laptop, an iPhone, and the NFL Network. Much of the Bears draft strategy is still murky. As of today, CHI has approximately $10 million in cap space for 2013. If they choose to re-work Peppers and Tillman, it may increase up to $20 million but Phil Emery has kept a lid on all off season strategies. Henry Melton presents another obstacle for CHI. If the Bears cannot agree on a long term deal with Melton, they'll have to decide if he's worth a Franchise Tag. Either way, Emery has to draft players that will be ready to step in and contribute from day one.
          After analyzing their needs, the Bears will be targeting OL, TE, and LB in the 1st Round. With the NFL Combine underway, Bears fans can start breaking down these players, who should be in play with the 20th pick.

Chance Warmack/OG-Alabama: Warmack is the best interior lineman in this draft. There is a long shot that Warmack falls to the 20th pick, if so, it's a no brainer selection.

Lane Johnson/OT-Oklahoma: Johnson impressed scouts with his size and athleticism at the Senior Bowl. If he has a great Combine may go top 15.

Tyler Eifert/TE-Notre Dame: Prototypical TE, can run down the seam, make the tough catches, and has the size and athleticism it takes to dominate at the next level. His 40 time will be huge.

Zach Ertz/TE-Stanford: Was caught behind Coby Fleener on Stanford's depth chart last couple of years, exploded in 2012. Great hands, size/speed prospect, and is a polished route runner. He suffered his first Combine drawback; arms only measured at 31 inches, which is real short for the TE position.

Manti Te'o/LB-Notre Dame: All World LB coming out of high school, lived up to expectations in career at Notre Dame. Had questions about pass coverage capabilities coming into his Senior year, then had 7 interceptions. Alas, not the brightest bulb in the world.

Alec Ogletree/LB-Georgia: Tremendous speed, attacks ball carriers, dominated in SEC play, potential superstar talent BUT has tremendous character issues. Te'o and Olgletree should be selected somewhere in the Top 12 but non-football questions will drop them in the 1st Round. Might reclaim top tier status with Combine workouts, both will be HIGH VALUE picks at #20.

Screw you Keith Law!

     The barren White Sox farm system has been derided both locally and nationally. Whether it's Dan Bernstein regurgitating "they're players NOT PROSPECTS!" every White Sox segment on The Score or ESPN baseball guru Keith Law rating their system 28th; the Sox get raked over the coals anytime prospects are mentioned. Dread not Sox fans, they have made some dynamic moves the last couple years and regardless of what the experts think, we have much to look forward to. Before analyzing where they're at today, let's try and find out how they got here in the first place.
     The White Sox have been aggressive in moving along their top prospects when warranted. John Danks, Gordon Beckham, Alexei Ramirez, Chris Sale, and Addison Reed all zoomed through without spending much time in the minors. Where would their system be rated if Beckham, Sale, and Reed all stayed down a year or two? Where would the Sox be if they weren't in the majors producing? Can you imagine AAA Charlotte with Sale, Viciedo, Reed, and Beckham in 2010 or 2011? Wouldn't Baseball America rank them top ten or top five? Teams who move along top prospects to the big club will always naturally be void of talent at the top of said list.
    David Wilder set back Latin American operations almost 10 years. Aside from committing fraud and damaging the Sox reputation; Wilder was overvaluing talent in order to skim money off the top of their bonuses. Since 2005, when Wilder assumed control of international scouting, none of those overvalued players advanced in their system. In turn, Buscones (street agents) kept their good players away and the White Sox Latin American operations ran aground. The ship wasn't righted until they hired Marco Paddy away from the Blue Jays in 2011. After spending only $740,000 on International Free Agents two years ago, the Sox dropped $2.9 million in 2012. Other teams have spent more but this is a drastic improvement for the White Sox.
     Rick Hahn, Buddy Bell, Marco Paddy, and Doug Laumann makeup the new Southside brass. They've had control for the better part of two years and 2013 becomes a critical evaluation point for the quartet.
If players reach immediate goals and potential, the Sox and their fans will have a lot to be happy about. Here are some key players who can/should advance in 2013:

• Courtney Hawkins-Drafted by Sox with 13^th overall pick out of high school in the 2012 First Year player draft. Struggled at first, he then caught fire when accelerated through Rookie, A, and Advanced A-Ball.  Had some contact issues but at 18 years old, it’s not a big deal right now. Hits for power, hits for average, has speed, has an arm, and can play defense; a true 5-Tool Prospect. Projects as a RF

Stat line: 8 HR, 33 RBI, 11 SB, .284 AVG, .324 OBP, .480 SLG, .804 OPS, .380 wOBA

Note: wOBA is a stat that gives linear weights to each plate appearance. Doubles > Singles/Walks, Triples > Doubles, etc…Average is usually around .330

• Trayce Thompson-Has athletic pedigree, dad and 2 brothers played in NBA. Thompson is a 4-Tool prospect but strikes out way too much (around 30%) Has serious power, speed, and is an excellent defender. His walks have increased the last couple of years, but will need to cut down on K's in order to fulfill expectations as a prospect. Projects as a CF

         2012 Stat Line: 25 HR, 96 RBI, 21 SB, .267 AVG, .352 OBP, .503 SLG, .854 OPS, .383 wOBA

• Carlos Sanchez-Signed as an International Free Agent from Venezuela two years ago as a 17 year old. Began to tear up A ball after his first year. Was promoted up to A+, AA, and AAA in 2012. Tapered off in 11 games at Charlotte then went to the AFL and won the batting title. Sanchez can play all infield positions, doesn’t have power but can hit to all fields, gets on base, has a lot of speed, and is a slick defender. Top of the order hitter who has shot up all prospect list and through the Sox organization. Projects as SS/2B

2012 Stat Line: 1 HR, 56 RBI, 26 SB, .323 AVG,  .378 OBP, .403 SLG .781 OPS, .355 wOBA

• Erik Johnson –Drafted in 2^nd Round of 2011, Johnson is a big righty with a power arm. Has a fastball, slider, and a developing change-up. Had a cup of coffee in Rookie Ball after he was drafted, then advanced two levels in 2012. Looked strong at A and A+ pitching 90 innings, and keeping a sub 3.00 at both levels. Projects as middle-rotation starter.

2012 Stat Line: 2.58 ERA, 94.1 INN, 30 BB, 89 SO, 1.230 WHIP

Other players to keep an eye on: Jared Mitchell/OF-produced after 2 years removed from broken ankle and is in a make or break year, Keon Barnum/1B-teenage prospect with huge upside. Was destroying rookie ball when he was shut down with a sore shoulder. Besides Mitchell, Barnum is the only other LH with power in the system, Scott Snodgress/LHP- drafted out of Stanford as a bullpen pitcher then converted into a starter. Has shown steady improvement his two years with the Sox and has the potential to be a number 3 or 4 starter, Andre Rienzo/RHP- electric stuff, was suspended 50 games for PEDs, came back and dominated through 2 levels and the AFL, Kevan Smith/C-Big Catcher who gets on base and hits for power and really good defensively, 2013 will determine if he's a starter or bench player, Marcus Semien/SS-Drafted twice by the White Sox, Semien took a big step up in production in 2012. Infielders who can hit for power are always in demand.

    

Bears Off-Season Report Part 4: WR

          Chicks dig the long ball; it's no different in the NFL. Teams like the Saints, Giants, Packers, 49ers and even the Ravens have invested team resources in WRs who have homerun speed. After years of sub par talent at the wideout position, Phil Emery traded for Brandon Marshall and drafted Alshon Jeffery. He's not finished yet. None of the Bears WRs have the homerun speed needed to stretch out a defense or scare opposing safeties. With players like Marshall and Jeffery, there should be mismatches down the field to take advantage of. There are a couple of big names on the free agent market, but considering other team needs, signing a Mike Wallace or Victor Cruz becomes cost prohibitive. Luckily for the Bears, this year is loaded with WR talent that will permeate through the first 5 rounds of the NFL Draft.


Here are the best deep threat WRs in this year's Draft:

• Cordarrelle Patterson-TEN, 6'3: 200lbs: 4.40/40 Patterson has size, speed, and a physical preseance on the field. A part of and amazing WR core at TEN, he came in as a heralded JUCO player and produced for the Vols. Grabbed 46 REC, 778 YDS, and 5 TDs receiving. Had 2 TDs and 772 YDS returning. And finally 3TDs and 308 YDS rushing. Patterson still needs to work on his route running but he is a PLAYER. 1st Round Grade
• Tavon Austin-West Virgina, 5'9: 180lbs: 4.35/40 Austin is small, very small...BUT his speed and agility are OFF THE CHARTS. 4.35 is a conservative estimate of his 40 time, many expect him to run a sub 4.30 at the combine. He's is every bit quick as he is fast. Amazing start and stop ability, great in space and highly, HIGHLY productive. Went for 114 REC, 1289 YDS receiving, 645 YDS rushing and 16 TDs. 1st round Grade
• Marcus Wheaton-Oregon, 6'0: 185lbs: 4.45/40 Polished WR, has a quick step and gets down the field fast. Played in a fast tempo offense and increased his production every year. Impressed scouts with a great Senior Bowl. With a good combine, may get bumped to the 1st Round. 2nd Round Grade.
• Justin Hunter-TEN, 6'4: 200lbs: 4.45/40 Another one of Tennessee's "Freaks" Hunter played sparingly his freshmen and sophomore year then exploded in 2012. Was stuck behind Da'Rick Rogers and Patterson on the depth chart until Rogers was dismissed this past September. Hunter is a smooth size/speed athlete, has a large catching radius, and produced in the SEC at all three WR positions. 2nd Round Grade.
• Da'Rick Rogers-Tennessee Tech, 6'3: 200lbs: 4.45/40 Came out of high school as one of the top recruits in the entire country. Played as a true freshmen and tore up the SEC as a sophmore. Big, fast, physical, Rogers toy'd with DBs and Safeties in college. Consistently beat press, zone, and double teams. Rogers is a boss. Negatives; he's a drama queen that was kicked out of TEN last year. Transferred to Tennessee Tech and dominated as he should have. High Risk/PHENOMANAL Reward potential. 2nd Round Grade based solely on character concerns.
• Stedman Bailey-West Virginia, 5'10 200lbs: 4.48/40 Bailey took advantage of the attention demanded by teammate Tavon Austin to the tune of 114 REC, 1622 YDS, and 25 TD's. West Virginia plays in a dismantled Big East but Bailey has dominated non-conference opponents LSU, OK, OK ST, Baylor, and Clemson. Shorter WR, very good on deep plays, attacks the ball, and plays with toughness. Like Justin Hunter, Bailey has played all three WR positions. Lacks the elite athletic ability of Tavon Austin, but so does just about every other WR. 2nd-3rd Grade
• Marquise Goodwin-Texas, 5'9: 175lbs: 4.3/40 Goodwin competed in Track & Field for USA at the London Olympics. Had a pedestrian career at Texas, doesn't look good on film; then Goodwin showed up at the Senior Bowl and destroyed the competition. Like Austin, Goodwin is expected to run a sub 4.3 at the combine. 4th Round Grade
• Tavarres King-Georgia, 6'0: 190lbs: 4.48/40 King had an ok career at Georgia. Quick first step, gets down the field fast, and displays solid athleticism. While his numbers weren't that impressive he did average 22 Yards/Play. Has a slight frame and will need to put on weight, didn't catch the pall with the consistency needed to be drafted in first two days of the draft. 4th Round Grade.

Best of the rest: Ace Sanders/South Carolina, Marcus Davis/Virginia Tech, Chris Harper/Kansas St, Denard Robinson/Michigan

The Bear Off-Season Report Part 3: TE

     What can be said about the Bears TEs that hasn't been said already. Atrocious. Dastardly. Beyond Contempt. Putrid. Okay, I guess I found a few new adjectives. It's safe to say that Kellen Davis and/or Matt Spaeth are probably out. Ditto for Kyle Adams. So what can be done at TE? There are some decent free agents available, a couple of prime time 1st Rounders, and a lot of depth in the middle rounds of this year's draft. Emery and Trestman will have to decide what the priorities are on offense. Do they look at O-Line in the first round? What kind of TE do they need? Is getting a deep-threat at WR more important? Whatever the decision, talent will be there for the taking. The Bears lacked any real threat going down the seam consistently. Edwin Rodriguez surprised many with his ability to block but was seldom used in the pass game. Even in an expanded role, he's still more of an H-Back. Look for the Bears to lock up a big, pass-catching TE (who at the very least won't fall down every time the ball hits his hands)

The free agent crop of TEs is well stocked. A lot of young guys coming off their rookie deals who have been productive. Free Agents:

• Jared Cook-TEN: Cook is big, fast, athletic and productive. Has put up numbers even though QB play in TEN has been suspect. He's 25 and coming off his rookie deal. TEN probably will  Franchise Cook (which carries a modest $5 million) so the Bears may be out of luck. He's the top available free agent.
• JerMichael Finley-GB: Bears fans are familiar with Finley. He's talented and fits like a glove in Green Bay's offense. Very productive, as are most weapons in Green bay. Missed a large chunk of the 2010 season with a knee injury but bounced back in 2011. Green Bay has put a lot of money in their offense with long-term deals given to Jordy Nelson and James Jones. Greg Jennings will likely be allowed to walk while Finley's status remains up in the air.
• Dennis Pitta-BAL: Pitta is a very interesting story; walked on to BYU as a WR, switched to TE, played his freshman year, then when a a two year mission in the Dominican Republic. Came back to BYU and broke all kinds of NCAA TE records. Drafted by BAL in the 4th round of the 2010 Draft and was slowly developed. Had a breakout year this season and is now in the Super Bowl. BAL would love to re-up with Pitta but they have a huge Joe Flacco problem. Because of his Mormon mission, Pitta is older than either Cook or Finley (he's 27)

          Best of the rest: Martellus Bennent-NYG, Brandon Myers-OAK, Fred Davis-WAS

The draft has provided a lot of value TEs in recent years. Coby Fleener, Kyle Rudolph, Jimmy Graham, etc...This year isn't any different. TE Prospects:

• Tyler Eifert-Notre Dame: There are two TEs that have 1st round grades and Eifert tops that list (although that may change after the NFL Combine.) Everyone has seen his highlights; Great hands, attacks the ball at the high point, was one of the few Notre Dame players in the National Championship game who showed up (clowned Alabama 1st Round CB prospect Dee Milner ). 2nd Team All-American, Mackey Award Winner in 2012.
• Zack Ertz-Stanford: The only other TE with a 1st Round grade thus far, Ertz is another size/speed prospect with great hands and a lot of production at Stanford. Had to sit behind Coby Fleener for his chance to display his skills and came through with 69 REC, 898 YD, 6 TD. May be faster than Eifert while being just has physically imposing
• Jordan Reed-Florida: Undersized at 6'2 but makes up for it with speed, quickness, and agility. Might be fastest TE in the draft, played in a anemic Florida Offense but still managed to produce solid numbers. Needs to bulk up and not as polished a route runner as Ertz or Eifert. 3rd Round Grade.
• Travis Kelce-Cincinnati: Has experience playing with his hand on the ground and in the slot. Exploded with production for the Bearcats this year; 45 REC, 722YD, 8TD including an 80 yard TD vs Duke with 44 seconds left to win the prestigious Belk Bowl. Kelce will be the first Bearcat taken and is a prospect with huge upside. He presently has a 3rd Round Grade but with a good combine can shoot up draft boards.

           Best of the rest: Vance McDonald-Rice, Gavin Escobar-San Diego St., Dion Sims-Mich St,   
           Nick Kasa-Colorado

The Bear Off-Season Report Part 2: OG

          As the 2012 NFL season wore on, injuries and ineffectiveness ravaged the Bears on the interior of the O-line. Chilo Rachal was a failure, Chris Spencer would've been fine except he lost his spot to Rachal, and Lance Louis was the victim of Jared Allen's bush league crack back that put him on IR. The Bears were left inserting undrafted free agent James Brown (off their practice squad) and Gabe Carimi (played on one leg) to finish the season.
          SELF-SCOUTING. This is why Phil Emery was hired as GM. Are James Brown and Lance Louis the answers at OG? If not for the injury, Louis (UFA) would've been extended; now he and the Bears are in limbo. James Brown was signed as a priority UFA out of Troy. He was a long term tackle prospect before having to suit up at OG. When will Lance Louis be healthy? Where is Carimi better suited? Emery will have to determine how to use resources to get better production at OG. There's a lot of talent at the guard position in this year's draft but selecting a starter will most certainly have to be done in the first 2 rounds. Here are the top guards coming out of the college:

• Chance Warmack, Alabama: Warmack dominated SEC play and is a Top 15 player, maybe top 10. If he lasts until pick #20, the Bears would be hard pressed to pass up a player who has a real good chance to be a perennial pro bowler.  
• Jonathan Cooper, UNC: Cooper is a bit undersized but his athleticism and explosiveness are highly graded. Cooper was a 3 year starter at Carolina, which averaged 193 yards rushing per game in 2012 and earned himself All-American honors. Warmack and Cooper are the only true OGs who have a 1st Round Grades.
• Barrett Jones, Alabama: Barrett Jones started 25 games at RG his first two years at Alabama, earning Freshman All-American, 3rd Team All-American honors, and a National Championship in 2009. His Junior year, Jones was switched to LT, earned All-American honors, won the Outland Trophy as the nation's best linemen and a second National Championship. When he became a Senior Jones was switched to C, earned All-American honors again, won the Rimington Award for being the nation's best Center, and yes, another National Championship. The most versitile linemen in the draft, has excellent fundamentals, doesn't have or need brute strength, great at using his hands and feet, stays on top of his blocks; doesn't exhibit great explosiveness or athleticism; had foot surgery and is out 3-4 months.
• Dallas Thomas, Tennessee: Like Jones, Dallas Thomas has played multiple positions at Tennessee. Started his first two years at LT then was moved inside to LG. Athletic, powerful, and with solid measurables, Thomas won 2nd Team All-SEC honors at his new position. His versatility gives him a 1st Round Grade, and a lot of scouts think he can transition back outside and play LT.
• Larry Warford, Kentucky: MASSIVE. 6'3, 330lbs and has a mauling style of play. Very strong, finishes off defenders when he gets them on their heels. Has strong hands, while not athletic, Warford does have a quick first step that allows him to pull as well as blow defenders of the ball. Has a 2nd Round Grade.

Best of the rest: Alvin Bailey-Arkansas, Hugh Thornton-Illinois, Omoregie Uzzi-Georgia Tech

The Bear Off-Season Report Part 1: OT

     Now that Phil Emery has hired Marc Trestman, he can now focus on the roster. Emery will still have to lock down a DC with the exit of Rod Marinelli, which will affect player depth on DEF, however the picture is clear on what Bears team needs are.

Team Needs: OT, OG, TE, WR, MLB, CB, DE

OT: Phil Emery ignored the offensive line last year, that clearly will not be the case again. The Score's Dan Bernstein reported Bears brass are still high on OT Gabe Carimi while confirming his knee never fully recovered from surgery last off-season. Essentially Carimi played on one leg last year. However, he will have to compete with Johnathon Scott (who did a decent job securing the right side) at RT. J'Marcus Webb on the other hand has proven to be nothing more then a BN player. Able to play in a pinch, but not a long term answer. Drafting the 4th or 5th best LT in the 1st RD of the 2013 NFL Draft would be gambling next season. The wise move here is to find a professional OT in free agency. Here are the top free agents:

• LT Ryan Clady, DEN: Highest rated OT by Pro Football Focus, protects Peyton Manning's blindside, most likely to get tagged if not extended.
• RT Andre Smith, CIN: Smith was drafted as an LT with the 6th overall pick in 2009 from Alabama and immediately turned into a big tub of goo. His first two years in the NFL were awful. He was out of shape, had a bad attitude, and didn't seem to exhibit any toughness. Going into the 2011 season CIN rightfully passed on extending Smith's contract which would've inflated his rookie deal to 6 years. That's when the light turned "ON". Andre Smith has been dominating the last two years at RT and has finally displayed the skills which netted him a Top 10 Draft Grade. He now enters free agency as a UFA. If CIN chooses to use the Franchise Tag on Andre Smith, it'd be hard to justify paying that kind of money to an RT with Andrew Whitworth firmly entrenched at LT.
• RT Sebastian Vollmer, NE: Vollmer is a massive Tackle (6'8 320lbs) who will be marketed as an LT (which he has played sparingly in NE) and that may push him out of the Patriots' price range. He has dominated at RT, filled in at LT, and transitioned between both positions smoothly.
• LT Jake Long, MIA: Ah, the controversial Jake Long. Was the best LT in the game 2 years ago; My oh my how the mighty have fallen. His play has dropped off significantly the last two years, likely because of injuries. After not missing a game his first 3 years, Long missed time in 2011 with a back ailment and was eventually put on IR with a torn right biceps injury. He struggled this season and ended up back on IR with a torn left triceps. He's still very talented but has caught the injury bug. The arm injuries shouldn't scare anybody, but that back aliment is another story.
• LT Jermon Bushrod, NO: Drafted in the 4th Round of the 2007 draft, the Saints developed Bushrod overtime and he's turned into a Pro Bowl LT. Had a down year in 2012, but with so much going on with NO, not a complete shock. NO is desperate to resign him but they have serious cap issues.
• Branden Albert, KC: While playing OG at Virgina, the Cheifs committed early to switching Albert to LT. Baptized by fire his rookie season, but held his own. Had a down year in 2010 but has shown himself to be professional LT the last two years. KC is in a bind. Their cap space is limited and have two monster free agents to sign, Dwayne Bowe and Branden Albert.

Best of the rest: LT William Beatty-NYG, LT Sam Baker-ATL, RT Gosder Cherilus-DET