Wednesday, February 2, 2011

Economics of Luol Deng

     Derrick Rose has brought Chicago a magnificent oasis in the dead of winter. His basketball prowess has led to MVP talk and the Bulls challenging Boston and Miami for the No. 1 seed in the East. Rose has become a superstar and the insuing ripple effects have traveled far and wide...just ask Luol Deng. 
     The Bulls traded a 2nd Rd pick and $3 million for the rights to Luol Deng, given the production that should be considered a coup within itself. After 3 seasons of increased production, the Bulls saw it fit to extend Deng to a 6 year $71 million deal. And then the fun began.
   In a span of 3 years, Deng (and the Bulls) suffered both injuries and a coaching carousel that included Scott Skiles, Jimmy Boylan, Pete Myers before settling on Vinny Del Negro. Having to deal with inconsistent coaches is one obstacle; having to deal with Vinny Del Negro as a coach is bad for basketball and bad for America. Deng's '08-'09 numbers dipped to 14pts/game after only playing 48 games and he was dubbed a bust. 
     Deng's contract, like all NBA contracts, escaltes over time. Deng's '08-'09 campaign was no doubt a disappointment but he was only making $9 million. Given the injuries he had to deal with, that money was on point. His numbers bounced back last season to 17.6/7.3 (pts/reb) while making $10 million. At no point was he paid like stud. Crtics ripped Deng for not living up to his deal, for being soft, and not becoming a top 10 player in the league. Do you know what those guys get paid? Dirk Nowitzki comes in at No 10 on that list at just about $17 million. Even with all the Luol Deng All-Star talk now, he doesn't even crack the top 30!
     Comapre Deng to other Small Forwards in the league     
he's outplaying Rashard Lewis, Andre Igoudala, Andrei Kirilenko (all who are making millions more than Deng). While Rudy Gay and Paul Pierce are playing better, 20pts/6reb & 19pts/5reb respectively compared to Deng's 17.6pts/6.2reb both are making significantly more money as well. The only Small Forward who's a better value right now is Danny Granger. Considering that he and Deng make the same money, that's more of an anomaly. One big number I've left out is age. The only Small Forward on this list younger than Deng (25) is Gay (24). When Deng's contract hits 2014 and he's making $14.3 million, is it completely out of the realm of possibility that Deng cannot average 20pts and 7 or 8 boards a game. Wouldn't that certainly be worth every penny the Bulls are paying him. 
     The economics of Luol Deng dictate the Bulls are getting value for thier money. He's a 3rd option on offense, playing solid team and individual defense. Thibs and Rose are bringing out the best in Deng and the Bulls can take that to the bank.